ROGUE REPUBLIC: ALTERNATIVE HISTORY
Eastern part of map could've been result of Russia's being weak enough to divide. And this has happened in the Time of Troubles of 1612, in the Revolution of 1917, and in USSR downfall of 1991.
If this would have happened in 1612...
then there were no Russia, as Poland was at the peak of it's strength that time. So, there would be the dream of modern polish nationalists - Great Polska from Gdansk to Tobolsk. There might be some more events in 400 years of this, maybe, Poland instead of Russia would have become the "horror" of all Europe (and Revolution of 1917 would have happened in Warsaw), maybe, not all the Russian culture would be consumed, as Poland would be opened to European invasion (unlike Russia which is kinda protected by Poland)…
Anyway, there would be completely different Russia, completely different Poland and as a result - different map. For example, most probably, northern part of Russia would become part of Scandinavian Empire (Dutch, Norway, Sweden, Finland and northern part of Livonia).
If this would have happened in 1917...
Well, civil war happening in Russia would have made a lot of thing shown here possible. There were Finnish-Russian war in 1920, as Finland were claiming Karelia is theirs, Poland has run over Belarus, Lithuania and Ukraine - also it have taken part of Czech just before WW2 while Munich pact of 1938.
Also Soviet army had problems in Caucasus, where it had to use strength to calm down and disarm local radicals. So, if Red Army and White Army would weaken themselves, that no one would win, so they could not resist Finnish & Polish invasions, Caucasian rebellions, then it would lead to this situation, and even worth - Russia would have become smaller, and, probably, there were several "Russian" republics - socialistic, capitalistic, monarchic etc.
Also, in the end of Civil War (1921) Czech voluntary forces, strong enough so that Soviet government had just let them go home, were returning home with stolen gold of admiral Kolchak, so Poland would have quite much problems with them.
European countries, including USA, weren't happy about Polish enlargement - if it would have gone too far, there would be no supply for Polish army anymore. Also, particularly, Latvia would be smaller, if Poland would claim for Latgale, or larger, if Poland would stop on the borders, and Russia would have no forces to resist Latvian invasion (which resulted in occupying important railway center of Pytalovo, and which is now claimed back Latvian nationalists).
If this situation is gone to modern days, that means that there were no WW2, thus, Prussia still exists, and it is not Kaliningrad, but Konigsberg. Also, without bombing Japan with nuclear weapon what look would our world have?
If we talk about nationalistic movement - in the beginning of 20th century nationalistic movement was largely supported by interested countries: this way was broken Austrian-Hungary Empire and Russian Empire. And Ottoman Empire has turned into Turkey…
Also, if there were no WW2, then USA wouldn't have so much as it has now: no European gold to store, no dollar as a world currency, no exit of Great Depression with selling USA products for WW2 purposes, and post-war recreation, no carriers patrolling whole world, no Japan to train with nuclear bombs, no Vietnam, no Libya, no Syria etc… No USA as we know it.
If this would have happened in 1991...
Well, I believe, that Russia, ruled by foreign advisers, had given everything she had. There were separatist movement in 1998, when there were money printed for Ural republic, also, Chechen war, supported by some countries, with Arabian fighters teaching locals what's shariah, but that would mean Russian division - well, 1917 scenario. Probably, Karelia, as Finland claimed, would be parted also… But no big Russia anymore. But no big Poland either. Belarus and Ukraine are equal to Poland to be under its flag.
Also strange that Romania has joined this Federation, as they very different from slavs. Then why Hungary didn't joined it also?..
Strange that Cyprus is not divided into two parts: Greek and Turkey parts. Also, strange that there are no Abkhazia and South Ossetia on a map. If we follow this logic, then it's strange that Kosovo isn't the part of Serbia…
Conclusion
So, main idea of this text is: when you're thinking of alternate history, you can't just paint the map as you like. For every event must be a reason, and reaction to it, like in physics laws.
P.S.: If this would have happened in 2022...
this is year 2030 (or so). It's a rough map (things can be changed later) and it's the beginning of the fall of central government - Karelia separated first. My map maker proposed an even more radical version, but I objected because it could have cause a public outrage =) But before thinking of this, recall the history of China during WW2 - many breakaway regions like Tibet, Manchuria or East Turkestan, the nation itself divided between Communist and Nationalists.
This is what most probably may happen to Russia if its government won't think about finding alternatives for oil-gas revenues.
Такие дела
I believe Russia's government is thinking about getting over gas-oil revenues, that's why Customs Union is created. But anyway, if it's not yet overcome in 2030 - does it mean, that Europe don't need oil or gas for warming up their houses (remember how much Europe has been disturbed when due to Ukraine-Russian conflict there were no gas for EU?)? Of course, not, this resources will always cost some money, and 20 years are not the time of things to radically change (especially, when Europe is closing their atomic plants, and having economic crysis to make this radical steps).
Then, Customs Union is one of these stability factor which will make Russia more stable - why to separate, if it will make everything worth?
Then China separation happened due to national borders, the same it happened in USSR: latvian people, lithuanian people, belorussian, ukraine, armenian, georgian... These are national borders. And as far I know history of this time, these countries were allowed to disjoint, first, supported by USA/EU agents, second, by Gorbachov not giving straight order to stop this, third, by Yeltsin, who signed everything he was given. Well, like Lenin in his days )
So if we talk of Karelia - it is not the same as in 1917. That time there were 34% of karels, now it's only 9% (that's why status of republic was lowered to "autonomy"), the majority of population are russians. Also, if you remember Winter war of 1939, it has started of the fact, that Finland had become nazi ally, it had been sponsored by england to be armed, and seeing that fact, Stalin asked, in exchange for bigger territory, to move border away of Leningrad, as it was second capital of Russia, and strategically important place. And even in the 90th, when Russia was in its lowerest point, actually ruled by western "advisors", Karelia did not separated.
So, how do you think, how much there are chances of Karelia republic to be separated?
Also, you say about China when it was in war - very harsh time. You want to separate Karelia in peace time, and that's kinda very different situation. Latgalia of Latvia, Catalonia and Bask country of Spain, Kosovo north regions full of serbians, etc, can's go on separation despite the fact that they want to.
Just today I've found some interesting video about Ukraine:
Youtube.com
Well, this is also possible future. Polish Federation? Never heard of it ))
But if we talk of weak Russia then you mate is kinda right - if you have made Karelia separated (with updescribed conditions), then it means, that Russian Federation republics that are more likely to disjoint (like caucasian republics with influence of "great turan"), will do it. And Kuril islands will be japanese, Vladivostok will be chinese after short war, Norway will take some part of the seas, Kaliningrad would be separated... Probably, only big part from Smolensk to Ural will be left of Russia, if it is not broken again.
But again, there will be no money for "Koalitsiya-SV", old rusty T-72 & T-80 will be used ) No PAK-FA...
Shortly, I believe, this is impossible situation.
Also, question, why Poland and Lithuania have left European Union?
Из чьего-то творчества:
Польщо! Одвiчний демоне Вкраїни.
Вампире лютий, ненаситний,
Що вже столiттями цiлими
Спиває кров своїх офiр!
I може жити тiльки там
Де труп, де цвинтар i руїни (…)
Ти струп плюгавий, що обсiв
Народ-дiтину, – струп гидкий,
Якого навiть нам огнем
Не вдалось випалить, згоїти.
Ти новородок окаянний
I звiр мiж звiрами незнаний
Що iз зубами народився,
Iз кигтями, як сатона