One thing I notice on moddb is that when a mod comes out, it never lives up to the hype that surrounded it during development.
Well, this is mostly true with HL2 mods. Neotokyo had a lot hype and when it was released and it died in a matter of weeks. It was actually more popular when it was still in development. Not sure what happen, maybe people had higher expectations for it? Another more recent example is Firearms: Source. When that game came out there were like 10 servers. All 32 slots, filled to the brim. But, like Neotokyo, it too lost it's playerbase. All there is left is it's small fanbase that were from the original Firearms mod.
I guess what I am trying to say is to not to have such high expectations for a game that may not be all that great.